Tsoukalas. J., "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty"

Title: "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty"

Speaker: Professor John Tsoukalas, University of Glasgow

Host:  Assistant Professor Kospentaris Ioannis, Department of Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business

Time: 15.30 -17.00

Room:  76, Patission Str., Antoniadou Wing, 3rd floor, Room A36

Attachments:  PDF of Relevant Paper

Abstract: We formalize two novel concepts of uncertainty in a model of imperfect and dispersed information: agreed and disagreed uncertainty. We show that consumer disagreement significantly shapes the effect of uncertainty on economic activity. Episodes of elevated uncertainty accompanied by high consumer disagreement (disagreed uncertainty) do not exert negative effects on economic activity. In contrast, episodes of high uncertainty with low consumer disagreement (agreed uncertainty) lead to substantial economic contractions. These results challenge the conventional view that uncertainty invariably triggers recessions. We establish these findings using both time-series and micro-survey panel methods.