Ανάρτηση Ερευνητικού Δοκιμίου no 07/25

Ερευνητικό Δοκίμιο no 07/25 με τίτλο "The Ηeterogeneous Causal Effects of the EU’s Cohesion Fund"

των A. Αλεξόπουλου, Η. Κωσταράκου, Χ. Μυλωνάκη και Π. Βαρθαλίτη

Περίληψη

This paper quantifies the causal effect of cohesion policy on EU regional output and  investment focusing on one of its least studied instruments, i.e., the Cohesion Fund  (CF). We employ modern causal inference methods to estimate not only the local average treatment effect but also its time-varying and heterogeneous effects across regions.  Utilizing this method, we propose a novel framework for evaluating the effectiveness of  CFasanEUcohesionpolicytool. Specifically, we estimate the time varying distribution of the CF’s causal effects across EU regions and derive key distribution metrics useful for policy evaluation. Our analysis shows that relying solely on average treatment effects  maskssignificant heterogeneity and can lead to misleading conclusions about the effectiveness of the EU’s cohesion policy. We find that the impact of the CF is frontloaded, peaking within the first seven years after a region’s initial inclusion in the program. The  distribution of the effects during this first seven-year cycle of funding is right skewed with relatively thick tails. This indicates positive effects but unevenly distributed across regions. Moreover, the magnitude of the CFeffectis inversely related to aregion’s relative position in the initial distribution of output, i.e., relatively poorer recipient regions experience higher effects compared to relatively richer regions. Finally, we find a non-linear relationship with diminishing returns, whereby the impact of CF declines as the ratio of CF funds received to a region’s gross value added (GVA) increases.

Ο Άγγελος Αλεξόπουλος είναι Επίκουρος Καθηγητής στο τμήμα Οικονομικής Επιστήμης του Οικονομικού Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών, ο Ηλίας Κωσταράκος είναι Οικονομικός Αναλυτής στο European Commission’s Joint Research Centre στη Σεβίλλη, ο Χρήστος Μυλωνάκης είναι Mεταπτυχιακός Φοιτητής στο Ινστιτούτο CEMFI της Μαδρίτης και ο Πέτρος Βαρθαλίτης είναι Επίκουρος Καθηγητής τμήμα Οικονομικής Επιστήμης του Οικονομικού Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών.